This page provides monthly data & forecasts of the 1-year Treasury bill yield, the effective annualized return rate for Treasury debt with a constant 1-year maturity.
Historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect monthly averages of daily values.
PRIMARY FORECAST MODEL
Our market consensus forecast is a daily-updated forecast of key benchmark interest rates. It is generated primarily using yield data and futures market prices, using minimal theoretical assumptions. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.
The Treasury yield component of the forecast is generated using three seperate component forecasts:
While the model prioritizes consistency with market expectations, its forecast accuracy has historically exceeded that of survey and agency-based forecasts due to its higher update frequency and timeliness. Prior forecast values are available below.
The model is updated daily at 9:35 ET. Key inputs include the prior trading day's futures prices (as of a 3pm ET settlement time); the prior business day's Treasury par yield curves data, obtained from the U.S. Treasury; and the prior business day's effective fed funds rate prices, obtained from the New York Fed.
Each colored line represents a forecast generated on a single date. Click a date on the chart legend to add or remove a forecast. The most recent forecast as well as the first forecast of each month are available.
The grey line shows realized (actual) values of the variable†.
† If the date is for the current period, this value represents an average of data available so far.
ROLLING PREDICTION HISTORIES
Pulling data...
Each colored line represents forecasts over time for a single target period. Click a date on the chart legend to change the target date. The most recent forecast as well as the first forecast of each month are available.
The grey line shows realized (actual) values of the variable. Thus, the difference between the grey line and the forecast line represents how much the variable is forecasted to change between the time the forecast was made and the target date. For forecasts whose target dates have already arrived, the ✕ indicator displays the realized value of the target forecast†.
† If the date is for the current period, this value represents an average of data available so far.