Historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect monthly averages of weekly values.
PRIMARY FORECAST MODEL
Our market consensus forecast is a daily-updated forecast of key benchmark interest rates. It is generated primarily using yield data and futures market prices, using minimal theoretical assumptions. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.
The mortgage rate component of the forecast is generated using twp separate component forecasts:
a mortgage credit spread (consisting of prepayment risk and an option-adjusted spread reflecting mortgage demand) projected using the yield curve shape and survey-based consensus housing forecasts as inputs.
The model is updated daily between 9:30-10:00 ET (13:30/14:30 UTC) with the prior day's yields and futures prices; and weekly mortgage data from the Freddie Mac PMMS.
Each colored line represents a forecast generated on a single date. Click a date on the chart legend to add or remove a forecast. The most recent forecast as well as the first forecast of each month are available.
The grey line shows realized (actual) values of the variable†.
† If the date is for the current period, this value represents an average of data available so far.
ROLLING PREDICTION HISTORIES
Pulling data...
Each colored line represents forecasts over time for a single target period. Click a date on the chart legend to change the target date. The most recent forecast as well as the first forecast of each month are available.
The grey line shows realized (actual) values of the variable. Thus, the difference between the grey line and the forecast line represents how much the variable is forecasted to change between the time the forecast was made and the target date. For forecasts whose target dates have already arrived, the ✕ indicator displays the realized value of the target forecast†.
† If the date is for the current period, this value represents an average of data available so far.