This page provides monthly data & forecasts of the U.S. federal funds rate, the short-term interbank lending rate for cash held at the Federal Reserve. The federal funds rate is a critical benchmark rate in the global economy, and is the primary rate targeted by the Federal Reserve in monetary policy interventions. It is considered a risk-free rate and is frequently used as a proxy of the riskless cost of borrowing in the U.S. economy.
Historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect monthly averages of daily values.
PRIMARY FORECAST MODEL
Our market consensus forecast is a daily-updated forecast of key benchmark interest rates. It is generated primarily using yield data and futures market prices, using minimal econometric assumptions. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.
The federal funds rate component of the forecast is directly extracted from futures market prices with a model derived term premium. See the model documentation for details.
While the model prioritizes consistency with market expectations over forecast accuracy, its forecast accuracy has historically exceeded that of survey and agency-based forecasts due to its higher update frequency and timeliness. Prior forecast values are available below.
The model is updated daily between 9:30-10:00 ET (13:30/14:30 UTC) with the prior day's data. This uses the prior day's futures prices, generally at a 3pm ET settlement time.
Each colored line represents a forecast generated on a single date. Click a date on the chart legend to add or remove a forecast. The most recent forecast as well as the first forecast of each month are available.
The grey line shows realized (actual) values of the variable†.
† If the date is for the current period, this value represents an average of data available so far.
ROLLING PREDICTION HISTORIES
Pulling data...
Each colored line represents forecasts over time for a single target period. Click a date on the chart legend to change the target date. The most recent forecast as well as the first forecast of each month are available.
The grey line shows realized (actual) values of the variable. Thus, the difference between the grey line and the forecast line represents how much the variable is forecasted to change between the time the forecast was made and the target date. For forecasts whose target dates have already arrived, the ✕ indicator displays the realized value of the target forecast†.
† If the date is for the current period, this value represents an average of data available so far.