This page provides daily-updated data & forecasts of the 1-year real Treasury yield, i.e. the 1-year Treasury yield minus investors' annualized inflation expectations for the subsequent 1 year.
Increases in real yields reflect changes in the standard (nominal) Treasury bond yield or changes in inflation expectations. A rise in the 20-year real yield can be due to either a rise in the 20-year standard Treasury bond yield, or a decline in investors' expected inflation for the subsequent 20 years.
Since the Treasury yield is generally considered risk-free, the real Treasury yield can also be interpreted as the minimum risk-free real rate of return. For example, if the 1-year real yield is 1%, all alternative investments with a 1-year return horizon should return at least 1% or more on an inflation-adjusted basis to perform as well as the "riskless" return.
PRIMARY FORECAST MODEL
The market consensus forecast is a forecast calibrated to represent the median expectation of market participants. It is calculated as the simple difference between two component forecasts:
Each colored line represents a forecast generated on a single date. Click a date on the chart legend to add or remove a forecast. The most recent forecast as well as the first forecast of each month are available.
The grey line shows realized (actual) values of the variable.
ROLLING PREDICTION HISTORIES
Pulling data...
Each colored line represents forecasts over time for a single target period. Click a date on the chart legend to change the target date. The most recent forecast as well as the first forecast of each month are available.
The grey line shows realized (actual) values of the variable. Thus, the difference between the grey line and the forecast line represents how much the variable is forecasted to change between the time the forecast was made and the target date. For forecasts whose target dates have already arrived, the ✕ indicator displays the realized value of the target forecast.